Global gas supplies could tighten during 2026-27 winter heating season
Disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz may cause a global liquefied natural gas crunch, according to the IEA.
Global natural gas supplies may face further tightening during the 2026-27 winter heating season due to ongoing shipment disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned. According to a report cited by the Times of India, LNG loadings from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) dropped by 60 billion cubic metres (bcm) year-on-year between March and October 2026.
The IEA described the situation as an unprecedented supply shock. This disruption contributed to a 5 per cent, or 20 bcm, decrease in global LNG output, as new projects only partially offset the lower deliveries from the Persian Gulf.
The agency noted that while new liquefaction plants are growing, the supply shock is set to maintain tight market conditions during the northern hemisphere winter. New projects and existing facilities outside the Persian Gulf are expected to provide a combined incremental supply of just over 20 bcm, which the IEA said would remain insufficient to compensate for the losses from Qatar and the UAE.
The IEA outlined two scenarios for the winter period. If the Strait of Hormuz begins a progressive reopening in January 2027, global LNG supply could see a year-on-year decline of approximately 9 bcm, or 3 per cent. However, if the waterway remains closed until the end of March 2027, the decline could reach 20 bcm, or 7 per cent.
The agency also cautioned that delays in ramping up production at new plants or unplanned outages could create further risks to global supplies while the Middle East disruption continues.